Should the Scots Fear- Is the North Sea Oil Running Out?

So today’s question is whether the North Sea oil is running out. Whilst it is obvious that at some point, it will, in fact run out- it is yet a much harder question as to when exactly this will occur. Some sources such as The Economist argue that Britain’s offshore oil fields have already been producing oil for much longer than expected and thus it is no surprise that primary and secondary recovery oil is now reaching the end thus requires investment as well as all the current infrastructure is sucking money out of the UK economy due to its old age and the need to upgrade to new technologies. (Economist, 2014).

Whilst other sources argue that we have nothing to fear. According to different organizations, we have a very different amount of oil still left. Oil and Gas UK give a figure of 15 to 24 billion barrels boe thus claiming the energy will still be going beyond 2050 whilst the UK government claims that we are between 11.1 billion to 21 billion boe and The Wood Review reports between 12 to 24 billion boe of extractable oil. These are very different estimates and this is mainly due to the fact that as states in previous blog posts, it is very difficult to estimate the exact amounts of oil that is still left in a reserve thus there is a lot of uncertainty. Furthermore the UK may not want to make the actual figures public and may be keeping some oil as the nation’s reserve that is left for emergencies and security.

Having just faced The Scottish Independence, the UK remains shaken up about its oil. In the light of Scottish Independence, the amount of oil in reserves was exaggerated as obviously the arrogant Scots, wanting to become independent, closed their eyes and did not want to admit that the oil is running out. Leaving out all the other economical and political reasons as to why Scotland becoming independent would have been the worst idea ever, it is worth mentioning that all the monetary investments into the oil rigs (and can I highlight that the investments will have to increase by a great amount in the future to many enhanced oil recovery possible) were all supplied by the taxes that came from the UK tax payer- mainly made up of the population of people in England. Regardless of politics, it is hard to say how much oil is actually left in the North Sea and politics don’t help the matter making any conclusions on the subject more difficult however even the European Commissions Report on some EORs seems to mention the North Sea and that it will shortly run out of oil altogether although EORs are first to be used thus giving us a hint that the reservoirs have 5-15% more of extractable oil left within them. It does tell us that the area has been explored really carefully to find any possible oil reserves and there have been very few significant exploration successes and oil fields found since 1990.

While the first commercial extraction of oil on the shores of the North Sea was in 1851 when James Young retorted oil from oil shale mined in Midland Valley of Scotland, the first well was actually dug in 1964 in by the UK when the major exploration really begun. Regardless of how much oil remains in the North Sea, I think it is important to realize that it sure will run out before long making the UK economy struggle and alternative ways of obtaining energy should be explored. Below, is a video made by angry Scots, who in fact don’t believe that the oil will run out at all and think that there is some conspiracy against them and to try to convince people to vote “No” against the Scottish Independence. Perhaps people should be made more aware about the reality of oil running out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v56WJQrG9Q